Conservative sample portfolio: Far behind Bitcoin secret, but still stable

The new year starts with a strengthened Ethereum share price, which has been profitable by more than sixty percent since mid-December. Although the Conservative sample portfolio was unable to keep pace, it shows a much more stable development than Ethereum.

As explained at the beginning of November, we would like to follow the development of our model portfolio “Conservative” from the Crypto Compass on a weekly basis. We compare the development of this portfolio with that of Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and a comparison portfolio composed of the top 10 with weightings proportional to the respective market capitalisation.

Conservative means that the Bitcoin secret portfolio is comparatively low-risk

It is therefore formed from older crypto currencies such as Bitcoin secret or Ethereum. A stable coin or Bitcoin secret is also built up. Without going into too much detail, the Conservative portfolio consists of the following positions (ordered from the strongest to the weakest): optionally Tether, another stable coin or a Fiat position, Omnilayer Protocol, Counterparty, Ethereum, Bitcoin, Dash, Siacoin, Monero and Ripple.

The hope that the much-quoted ground will be reached is currently more than two weeks old. Since the downturn came to an end in mid-December, all assets have risen by Christmas. Bitcoin, Ripple and the comparative portfolio formed from the Top 10 have been moving sideways since then. For Ethereum, the Constantinople-Hard-Fork expectation seems to give the bulls wings, so that the price has now risen 40 percent compared to the previous month.

Conservative sample portfolio: clearly behind Ethereum, but also much more stable

Our sample portfolio joined the sideways movement of the other crypto currencies. Compared to the previous month, it rose about as much as the comparison portfolio consisting of the top 10 and is above Bitcoin and XRP. Of course it is far behind Ethereum:

If one focuses on the average daily return in the last month, our sample portfolio occupies a rather disappointing position in the lower midfield:

For a long-term investment, however, as we know, the view of the average return alone is incomplete. As the other key figures show, the Conservative model portfolio continues to be the top performer. The risk is significantly lower than that of the other assets. Likewise, the maximum drawdown last month of twelve percent was significantly lower than that of the comparable assets, whose drawdowns were at a minimum of 18 percent. After all, the value in loss is lower than the corresponding values for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP or the comparison portfolio consisting of the top 10 with a probability of 95 percent and 99 percent respectively.

As far as the return is concerned, a small “weakness” could be observed, as assumed in calendar week 51 of last year. However, the portfolio was still able to confirm its claim to be a secure investment in the crypto market. This is also shown by the development of the assets under review over the entire fourth quarter of 2018:

Bitcoin news: Slight Upwind, NASDAQ Plans Futures

Bitcoin: The leading crypto currency by market capitalization is recovering slightly. In the last 24 hours, it recorded a plus of seven percent. As usual, most Altcoins such as XRP from Ripple, Ethereum and Stellar are following suit. At the same time, NASDAQ announces the launch date for Bitcoin futures.

The Bitcoin price is recovering slightly, at least within the last 24 hours. Ultimately, it is a matter of opinion: if one had spoken of a price drop at a rate of 4,000 US dollars two months ago, it would have shown a slight upswing today. Bitcoin felt this in the morning hours of 28 November and currently stands at 4,100 US dollars. In the course of the week, on the other hand, it would be exaggerated to speak of recovery – here it is still ten percent minus that the share price had to put up with. In the last 30 days, however, the BTC/USD pair lost 36 percent.

Bitcoin news: The bank coin follows suit

As usual, the Bitcoin news market is oriented towards the mother of all crypto currencies and follows suit. Ripples XRP currently stands at just under 0.38 US dollars and has risen by 5.8 percent in the last 24 hours. In the weekly as in the monthly course the XRP course sank however around 14 and/or 16 per cent which was a scam according to Bitcoin news.

Ethereum, our problem child
Course-technical problem child in the Top 3 is probably still Ethereum. The Ether price on the 24h chart could increase by eight percent. A week ago, however, it was still 14 percent higher, a month ago even by 40 percent. Vitalik Buterin’s head birth currently stands at 117 US dollars.

Hash War finished: BCH attracts
Bitcoin Cash can also grow after the end of the Hash Wars – the daily chart shows a plus of almost nine percent. BTCH is currently at 205 US dollars with a weekly minus of 16.8 percent and a monthly minus of 52 percent.

Stellar Lumens (XLM) gains momentum

Stellar Lumens (XLM) is also currently up 6.4 percent per day. This puts the Stellar exchange rate at 0.145 US dollars. In the course of the week this is 23 percent minus and in monthly retrospect 32 percent which the XLM rate would have to take.

NASDAQ concretizes plans for Bitcoin Futures
All of this is happening as the US NASDAQ stock exchange concretizes its plans to introduce Bitcoin futures. According to information available to Bloomberg, the company has made progress in its negotiations with the SEC. In order to be able to bring the futures contracts onto the market, they must be approved by the same Securities and Exchange Commission.

Measured against the price developments last December, this can be seen as a bullish signal: At the same time as the futures were introduced for the first time, the price rose sharply for a short time, but then fell sharply again. According to studies, both can be combined with the introduction of futures.

Podcast: Bitcoin vs. blockchains without coin

The blockchain is considered by many to be the groundbreaking innovation behind Bitcoin. But Bitcoin is more than just a chain of data blocks. Does a blockchain without a Bitcoin-like asset make any sense at all?

A Peer-to-Peer Cryptosoft Revolution

Bitcoin is much more than just a cryptosoft blockchain. Because Bitcoin is a sophisticated, digital money system without a controlling institution. More info here: Participants can send money directly to each other as easily as they can send e-mails. These transfers are documented on the blockchain. Ensuring their integrity is the task of the miners, who compete with each other. In order for a transaction to be confirmed, a miner must provide the so-called proof of work.

As a reward for the demonstrably performed work, the miner receives a digital asset that is native to the blockchain: Bitcoin. The blockchain is therefore only one component in the electronic peer-to-peer cash system. In addition to the proof of work, the asset, Bitcoin, also plays an essential role. In other words, the digital asset serves as an incentive for the miners to do their job. What’s more, it gives the whole construct a unit with which value can be transferred and measured. In addition, Bitcoin is open to anyone and the computer code can be verified. Therefore the genius of Bitcoin goes far beyond “the blockchain”. Consequently, the terms Bitcoin and Blockchain are not synonymous. That is why Onur and I are discussing this topic in today’s podcast episode.

Onur Akpolat of the crypto heroes

Onur Akpolat is enthusiastic about crypto currencies and says: “This is the digital revolution I’ve been waiting for”. His passion led him to create the crypto hero podcast Hung Tieu. In today’s episode he is our guest in the BTC-ECHO podcast studio and philosophises with me about the sense of blockchains without coin.

Blockchain yay, Bitcoin nay” is the attitude of many established companies to the technological phenomenon of the 21st century. On the one hand the big players want to be hip and innovative, on the other hand decentralized technology undermines established power structures. This is why Bitcoin is usually actively hushed up in such circles. Blockchain technology, on the other hand, is very popular. After all, blockchain technology is the essence of Bitcoin and the fundamental innovation with which many processes can be overhauled. In addition, efficiency can be gained without having to abolish middlemen. But is that true?

Hodl the forest fairy – New Ledger Nano S Apps to store Bitcoin

For Bitcoin owners, proper storage of Bitcoins is almost more important than the Bitcoin course. With two new apps, wallet manufacturer Ledger is now taking on two important building blocks in the Bitcoin business: Hodlins and Recovery Phrases.

If you can’t trade, you have to hodl – that’s how it was in the legendary Bitcoin talk thread “I am hodling”. The apparently drunk user GameKyuubi explained in a slightly cryptic outburst of feelings why he preferred to keep Bitcoin on his wallet instead of doing daytrading with it – he was simply a bad trader. The small spelling mistake finally became the motto of an entire movement: Hodln until the Bitcoin price rises (and beyond). Sido, Kool Savas, gynaecologist and other rappers made a song out of it. And now Ledger, the wallet operator, has developed an app especially for it.

HODL – Keep Bitcoin loophole safe

From Ledger’s official announcement: “We have developed Ledger Hardware Wallets to give people a way to keep their crypto currencies safe. Far away from online exchanges or a computer that could be hacked or attacked.” So if you do a transaction and the address and number of crypto currencies like Bitcoin loophole, Ethereum and Co match, you can be sure that your crypto assets are kept safe, Ledger continues. The new Hodl app will now make it easier to check wallet addresses when receiving crypto currencies. Ledger Nano S thus acts as a “virtual keyboard”. For this you have to master four steps:

Selecting the address field on the computer
Open the HODL app
Use the Nano S Ledger to select the wallet you want to use.
Have the address inserted automatically
The HODL app now promises to help ensure that you enter the correct address. As most people know, these are quite long, so even the biggest Bitcoin professionals can make mistakes when entering the address. The app is easy to install on the Ledger Live application.

Comment by BTC-ECHO editor Christopher Klee:

Hodl the forest fairy. It’s nice that Ledger is now helping the Hodlers to stop making gross mistakes when holding Bitcoin.

Recovery Check – for more security with the HODLN of Bitcoin, Ether and Co.
As a second new app Ledger presents RecoveryCheck – now you can check your recovery phrase. What anyone who should know about storing crypto currencies on wallets: With the recovery phrase the stored tokens stand or fall if the ledger is lost or stolen – without it you can’t get to your funds afterwards – which can lead to high losses.

With the Recovery-Check-App this should be much easier now. You can simply enter it into the app again and the app automatically checks whether you have written down the right words – then you can best copy it again and store it in a safe place.

The company on its blog:

“We are happy to bring these new features to our community and we will continue to work on improving our products for the future.

Just to remind you, storing crypto currencies on Exchanges is not a good option if you are concerned about security. The problem is now well known – although crypto currencies themselves are protected against attacks – the stock exchanges are not always. Again and again we have to report about phishing attacks on crypto exchanges where users lose their carefully coded bitcoins. If you want to be on the safe side and don’t trust your memory enough for brain wallets, you’ll always be well served by ledgers like Ledger Nano S, Archos or Trezor.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin rate remains stable at over 8,000 dollars. This means that the leading crypto currency is currently at a 7-day plus of 6.36 percent and a monthly upswing of just under 28 percent. There it is not wrong to continue hoddling Bitcoin. The same applies to Ether, Ripple and most Altcoins, which are in the upwind.

Scaling Bitcoin formula – Five lectures to look forward to

Scaling Bitcoin, the big Bitcoin Summit, will begin on 9 October with five interesting presentations.

Will Bitcoin formula finally be scaled?

This is the question the current Bitcoin formula Developers Conference will address. Scaling Bitcoin formula runs from October 8th to 9th and is the third conference to address the question of how to create more users and more transactions.

Even if this Bitcoin Summit has lost some of its original fascination, this conference is eagerly awaited: It is about the technological roadmap of Bitcoin, a project critics say is losing ground compared to other crypto currencies.

But this conference will not just be about scaling Bitcoin. In general, one would like to discuss how Bitcoin can be improved. For example, one would like to talk about Segregated Witness.

Roughly speaking, the technical presentations will be divided into six sections. Top tier developers will be addressed on topics such as Bitcoin network issues, privacy and security.

In previous editions of this conference, things like Segregated Witness or Bitcoin-NG, a proposal to revise Bitcoin, have been presented.

There will be a live stream to be found on Youtube, and in an IRC channel even the physically absent audience will be able to interfere in the discussions. So what can you see live or via livestream? Now five interesting talks are briefly touched on, so that one knows what kind of lectures one can expect – what else there is to talk about can be found here. For the readers, the titles of the lectures are left in English, so that you can quickly find them on the Internet if you are interested.

Fungibility Overview (Adam Black and Matt Corallo)

The following four talks will deal with fungibility, which is why an introductory talk on this topic is useful.

Fungibility is ultimately the idea that a Satoshi is as good as any other – as is the case with cash. In the Bitcoin blockchain, this is not necessarily the case – individual coins are interchangeable.

The concept of fungibility goes hand in hand with transaction anonymity: if one can hide details of transactions from the eyes of third parties, the money will ipsofacto not carry around any information about old transactions – at least not in such a way that third parties can see it.

Adam Black, the inventor of Hashcash and CEO of Blockstream, has always been a proponent of the principles of fungibility and privacy. He will give this lecture.

Onion Routing in Lightning (Olaoluwa Osuntokun)
The Bitcoin Lightning network is seen by many as the future of Bitcoin, but it is not yet clear to many how all the pieces of the puzzle will fit together to form a working, fast payment network.

One way to bring anonymity to the Lightning network is through onion routing (a process you should know from the Tor network). Osuntokin is a pioneer in this approach and published standards for onion routing a few months ago.

Unlinkable Outsourced Channel Monitoring (Tadge Dryja)
Off-chain networks for microtransactions is a major topic. In this lecture one of the inventors of the Lightning network, Tadge Dryja, will talk about a special challenge.

The Lightning Network requires that there be someone who constantly monitors individual payment channels and ensures that users do not cheat on each other.

It was suggested that such a job be outsourced to specialists. They should look for fraud attempts without having control over these transactions themselves. But how this will work in Lightning Network has remained open so far.

Dryja’s presentation will certainly try to clarify a few things here. The word “Unlinkable” suggests that we will be dealing here with private transactions. So one can assume that there is something new regarding the Lightning network.

Sidechain Scaling (Paul Sztorc)
Sidechains, another strongly observed Bitcoin feature, is currently being driven primarily by the Montreal-based company Blockstream.

In order to motivate creative minds to do more experiments in the Bitcoin ecosystem, you can enable users to move Bitcoin to other blockchains. On these so-called sidechains other rules can apply than on the Bitcoin blockchain; see Rootstock, for example, Smart Contracts could run on them.

Paul Sztorc, a developer who submitted his own sidechain proposal called Drivechain, will show how these sidechains work with Bitcoin’s Skalie

Why Bitcoin acceptance depresses the news spy

When companies accept Bitcoins, it sounds very gratifying at first: more shopping opportunities, larger network infrastructure and increased trust through the support of well-known companies. The two-sided medal explains why the big players in the race are still pushing down the Bitcoin price. Because Bitcoin acceptance is not the same as Bitcoin acceptance.

What motivates retailers to accept the news spy?

The first step, the dealer’s decision to introduce the news spy as a payment method, is the first step towards becoming a Bitcoin merchant. This provides merchants with similar benefits to the news spy customers:

Fraud prevention. Unlike credit cards, for example, payments cannot simply be cancelled (by fraudsters).
Savings in fees. The fees are negligibly low compared to other payment methods.
New niche market. In terms of Bitcoin acceptance, the Bitcoin continues to be a niche product. And integration as a payment method appeals to the special audience of Bitcoin enthusiasts, which at the same time sets Bitcoin apart from the competition.
Acceptance is not equal to acceptance
Bitcoin payment processing models can be divided into two opposing categories: Native settlement and Bitcoin As a Service. The last term was freely chosen by me.

Native Bitcoin Merchants

Native acceptance is usually what one imagines under normal payment processing for a purchase with Bitcoins: The customer sends Bitcoins, the merchant receives the Bitcoins.

Bitcoin As a Service
I have chosen the phrase “as a service” for this model because merchants who follow this method do not actually accept Bitcoins directly. You only use the Bitcoin for payment, just like the buyer’s credit card, and you don’t want anything else to do with it. In contrast to native integration, the customer pays Bitcoins and the merchant receives money (e.g. dollars or euros). For this purpose, a service such as Bitpay usually comes into play, which takes care of the actual payment processing. As a rule, the online shops themselves do not come into contact with Bitcoins at all; in the end, only the converted money is transferred to them.

Bitcoin acceptance as a price brake
It is obvious that native Bitcoin acceptors (as presented above) do not necessarily have a positive effect on the price. The Bitcoin user pays his purchase with Bitcoins and since the merchant is only interested in Fiat money, true to the motto “Only cash is truth”, the Bitcoins are sold immediately.

The consequence: The price is pushed. The dealers push their Bitcoins, which are converted in the purchases, masses on the market. Since they are primarily interested in receiving cash quickly, the selling price is oriented towards below rather than above the current price.

Only cash is true
Most retailers only accept Bitcoins as a service. So far, this method has more advantages for merchants as it offers security in many ways. The direct exchange into cash saves the trader a lot of effort:

No price fluctuations. The fast sale allows small price fluctuations to be taken into account, but the trader does not risk major losses that would be possible if he kept the Bitcoins longer.
Tax situation. As a young innovation, Bitcoin has not yet officially arrived in many countries and there is a lack of clarity about the tax assessment. When exchanging e.g. into euro dealers can calculate their taxes as usual.
Too small a network. A company has to handle many costs. As an example already the coworkers are enough. So if income is generated in Bitcoin, then employees, suppliers and goods would also have to be paid with Bitcoins. Since the ecosystem is not large enough, however, the retailer cannot avoid exchanging his Bitcoins for Fiat currencies.
The decision to accept Bitcoins only as a service is therefore understandable at this stage. Especially the big companies like Dell rely on this model. However, smaller shops like Bester-Tee swear by native acceptance and (initially) keep the Bitcoins themselves.

Bitcoin: Can the crypto trader soon compete with the stock market?

Bitcoin’s volatility is falling steadily. While fluctuations of the Bitcoin exchange rate in the double-digit range were not uncommon a year ago, the crypto currency number one now seems to have levelled off somewhat. In the last 24 hours, the Bitcoin exchange rate has only dropped by 0.64 percent, in the course of the month by just under 3.3 percent – a sign of maturity? There is some evidence that we are dealing with a crypto currency that is slowly gaining maturity.

Bitcoin, originally set out to turn the banking system around, had (and still has) to struggle with some initial difficulties. First, there is the image of the dingy Internet currency, which exists only to facilitate terrorism and money laundering. A picture that is still persistent. In addition, there are constant doubts as to whether it is not a snowball system or the largest bubble the world has ever seen. This, combined with the high price volatility, has also been an argument that, for example, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has prevented Bitcoin ETF from being approved. However, as several researchers at the University of Krakow have now discovered, some things have changed in the country of crypto currencies.

Comparison of Bitcoin and crypto trader

The scientists now compared the fluctuations in the Bitcoin exchange rate with the crypto trader and onlinebetrug those of the (supposedly) mature markets and determined:

“[…] the Bitcoin market and possibly other crypto trader currencies have concrete potential to soon become a regular market – as an alternative to the foreign exchange market. ”

They analysed the data for the period from 1 January 2012 to 31 March 2018 by filtering out trading data one minute apart. Among other things, they examined the relationship between trading volume and price fluctuation (volatility). Particularly in view of the last peak phase in December, they found that everything points to the Bitcoin market currently becoming more mature.

Bubble formation: a normal phenomenon

Probably the most remarkable finding of the study: The bubble formation during the peak phase in December 2017 indicates that the market is maturing.


“On December 16, 2017, the Bitcoin market experienced a spectacular turnaround. It changed from strongly growing to sharply declining […]. Such phenomena are well-known products from mature financial markets and occur unstoppably in [all markets] […]”.

It is above all the bubble phase that suggests that the market has now matured after the brief sharp rise and the bursting of the bubble:

“One of the simplest parameters for the temporal development of the price is [a correlation of two parameters] in the (growing) bubble phase […]. There is some empirical evidence that [this correlation] is common, perhaps universal, in financial markets”.

They ultimately come to the conclusion:

“The Bitcoin market has very quickly developed the statistical characteristics that characterize all “mature” markets, such as stocks, commodities or foreign exchange trading. It seems obvious that other crypto currencies follow this example. This could lead to a completely new market […].”

Binance raffles off 37,000 BNB tokens

The Bitcoin exchange Binance is giving away a total of 37,000 of its platform’s own BNB tokens. The Binance Coins are mainly intended for the operation of the exchange, but can be exchanged for other crypto currencies such as Bitcoin at any time. The competition selects the best trading strategy.

The Bitcoin exchange Binance is one of the largest exchanges for crypto currencies in the world. While Bitfinex’s competitors are slowly but surely losing the trust of their clientele, Binance continues to put itself in a positive light. Binance is not only strong in the humanitarian sector, but has also launched a competition. A total of 37,000 Binance tokens (NBBs) can be won.

Bitcoin as a benchmark

The competition is about showing who has the best trading strategy. As you can see from a blog post, there are no initial restrictions on the competition. Participants can use the crypto currency and the amount of crypto currencies of their choice and show their optimal trading strategy. The ranking is done retrospectively in such a way that the traders who make the highest percentage profit win. All winnings are converted into Bitcoin in order to take the value in Bitcoin as a benchmark.

Division of the tokens

The total prize of 37,000 BNB tokens will be divided among the 50 best traders. For the first place you get 8.000 BNB, the second place gets 4.000 BNB and the third place gets 2.000 BNB. A further 6,000 NBB will be divided between places four to ten. The remaining traders (places eleven to 50) each receive 175 NBB. The BNB tokens can be used, among other things, to pay the transaction fees on the Bitcoin exchange.

Is it worth it? The Binance Coin is currently just under USD 9.80. So Binance is raffling a total of around USD 362,000, for the first prize you get the equivalent of USD 78,400. The BNB token currently ranks 14th among the crypto currencies with the highest market capitalization. A total of almost 190.8 million digital coins circulate in the vastness of crypto space. It remains to be seen whether traders are prepared to reveal their trading strategies for these sums.